Sunday, April 10, 2011

Western regime against Libya, Gaddafi did not expect such a tenacious vitality

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April 10, in the Libyan capital Tripoli, Libyan leader Muammar Gaddafi (center) and the African Union (AU) special issue on the members of the Committee of Libya photo. 
AU special committee on the issue of Libya arrived the same day members of the good offices of Libya, Muammar Gaddafi and the opposition to bring a cease-fire and political dialogue. Xinhua News Agency 

With the impasse in the Libyan war, the international community to advocate peace talks to solve the problem mounting. Turkey, South Africa, Russia and other emerging countries, Germany, Finland, Sweden, Denmark, Norway and other European countries, have called for peace and dialogue to resolve the current crisis. Overall, the current war does to the Libyan political solution stage. 

Uncertainties caused by the war too. Just as the U.S. military strikes in Iraq, face a lot of "I never thought," just like the U.S. and British law against Libya also has several "did not think": 

One did not expect such a tenacious vitality Gaddafi regime. On March 19 before the Western military intervention, the Libyan national has appeared in the military defection, defection of senior officials, tribal and other signs of defection, the West beat so holding "dead tiger" mentality to military intervention, full of thought Cuikulaxiu offensive, Gaddafi will accelerate the collapse. 

Unexpectedly, a substantial part of its population by government forces and the support of Libyan government forces lost about 30% despite the fighting, but there are advantages to compete against government forces. And that the Libyan army tactics increasingly flexible, increasingly backward balance of war army side. 

The second is not a device did not expect the Libyan opposition. Western premature bet on the political side of the rebels, especially the French government broke off diplomatic relations with Gaddafi prematurely, it lost its room for maneuver. 

Since then, Western military intervention in the hope, armed opposition to gain ground, take Gaddafi and replaced, will win back the political stakes exponentially. 

Unexpectedly, anti-armed forces, internal disunity, not only the lack of unified command and leadership, they lack the necessary training, coupled with lack of heavy weapons, and fighting government forces often Yichujikui, even if Western air support, and government forces still can barely make a draw. 

If withdrawal from the West, certainly not to hold the existing site, not to mention the elimination of Gaddafi.
Gengrang headache is the West, anti-government armed cohabitation, there are many "base" elements. If the rash its armed West is likely to repeat the lessons of the year support the Taliban. 

Currently, Libya has become the West's war, "hot potato." First of all, can not afford the economic and strategic consumption. High-tech war is equivalent to "burn." 

According to reports, "Rafale" fighter jets flying hour costs over 30,000 euros, "Mirage" aircraft flight hour costs over 10,000 euros, a Tomahawk missile more than 100 million, Britain France and the United States consumed 100 million U.S. dollars a week. This is not fully out of the economic crisis in Europe and America, this is indeed a heavy burden. The longer the war dragged on, the more unfavorable to the West. 

In addition, the war has pushed up international oil prices, the oil-consuming countries in Europe and America, as also subjected to high oil prices suffering. United States has handed over command of NATO, British and French air is not so high heart. 

Second, military and legal trouble. Currently, the Libya situation has evolved into a civil war both sides live ammunition, not the beginning, the western finds that the "government repression of the civilian population." 

If the West continues to intervene, it becomes a "pull side frame," and openly involved in the Libyan war, and will cause more civilian casualties. This is the first Western coalition forces "to protect civilians" on the cover completely the opposite. 

From the military point of view, the lack of anti-government armed combat situation, the West to achieve the stated objective of Qaddafi ousted, only deployed ground forces, it is entirely beyond the scope of the United Nations mandate, and is likely to repeat the mistakes of the Iraq war 

From a legal perspective, Europe had launched air strikes, there is drilling loopholes United Nations resolutions, self-dealing suspects. The more the war continues, Britain and France that exposed the true face of the more significant. 

Earlier, Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez, Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad accused the West Dengjun this is the "war for oil." Recent fierce civil war in Côte d'Ivoire, but the West turned a blind eye once again confirmed the West's allegations. 

In short, the military solution to the problem has been to the end of Libya, a political solution to put on the agenda. But military and political means sides of a coin. "I did not think" the problem waiting for solution.

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