Sunday, April 10, 2011

Xu Guangyu: Gaddafi "peace talks" and "war" with both hands

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Core prompted French Foreign Minister Alain Juppe said 7 days, on Libya to the international contact group will be the 13th meeting in Doha, Qatar, Libya to seek a political solution. Juppe told the French Senate the same day Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee question, said that the current situation in Libya "complex" and has "uncertainty", the international community needs to seek a political solution. International Conference in London, the international contact group will be the 13th meeting in Doha, Qatar. 

April 7 Phoenix "Phoenix Global Connection", the following part of the text Record: 

Xu Guangyu: Gaddafi "peace talks" and "war" with both hands 

Huyi Hu: Yes, thank you in Hillsborough Benghazi added. Continue to focus again to the general in Beijing, Xu, Xu generals in fact just said you made special mention of Gaddafi's military strategic plan he now had some changes, but we then look at the lens, this lens is it? In 22, when coalition forces stormed, the Gaddafi in the capital Tripoli, his first public appearance of the screen. Why should we look at the camera, you can find, Gaddafi not only in the military he has his own strategic intentions, you can from him every time when, for example in the military onslaught, he will this time in Tripoli, threatened to fight in the end. So after a lapse of several days, in the now nearly a month to now, coalition forces did not lay him, he now wrote, again in the letter to Barack Obama, can say he emerged in the diplomatic, but also including the attitude is also quite flexible, if this level from the psychological war with the diplomatic level, he is playing you analyze Gaddafi special ground? 

Xu Guangyu: You are very good, we Gaddafi's performance this month, he's hands are doing, one is the armed forces at the front of military action, with action to combat anti-government armed forces and to fight, to do everything possible to resist the control of the situation and expand his control surface. 

The other hand is the way to attack with the text, this method is to use diplomatic psychological, to better emotional stability in the country other than that and more to gain support abroad, including against his Western allies, including NATO, including the United States. So this aspect is concerned, you can show him, and now he has almost 70 years old, in the use of these two means, he became a proficient. So you can judge the situation in Libya he could soon occupy the whole appearance of the phenomenon of one-sided, I am afraid it is very difficult, in terms of NATO is a very big problem for the U.S., is also out of the problem. 

Fortunately for all parties in a political way to resolve the conflict, we have this desire. So I personally think that the prospect of a whole is concerned, is the whole war, not last too long, so many years continues, this is unlikely, it is possible to solve the problem within a few months. 

Hu Yihu: but if as you say, the problem resolved within a few months, but the plain fact both Tripoli and Benghazi who who can not afford to eat in such circumstances, Libya will not go Under a divided state, will continue for some time, a short break returned to the scene, listen to the tripartite analysis, see you later. 

Experts say Libya is facing the possibility of splitting the small state 

Hu Yihu: Welcome back to our global connection site, visitors can see the screen you sent us two Phoenix TV reporter, respectively, Zhou Yijun in Tripoli, on the screen you see Jiang Xiaofeng in Benghazi. In fact, Tripoli, Benghazi with the two cities, the long history of Libya in the past which have been a different turn once the main center of power. Look out of the division of the Libyan people, however, is quite familiar in the past, now they look at how the division now, I see some of the Zhou Yijun, Yi Jun Among the people you meet, how they look at possible future state division of the situation? 

Zhou Yijun: In fact, we have heard here, there are two voices, the first sound is open, is loud, and all support the Gaddafi regime, every day no matter where journalists can go to see someone holding his portrait and chanted slogans supporting Gaddafi. 

However carefully the photographer will find some of these people in different locations when the same wave of people. The other sound is in private, is relatively weak, sometimes no news in our view, the accompanying circumstances, someone will suddenly come to tell us that we need no-fly zone, needs to change. 

Gaddafi has been in power 40 years, his family is very wealthy, but the people did not really have enjoyed the benefits. But the two voices, no matter what kind of sound, they are the same for the country opposed the separatist attitude, because for the people, they more of a fear of the unknown, they do not know after splitting the prospect of what will happen in emotion that the country was divided. 

Gaddafi ruling 40 years, whether good or bad, at least he made the country as the main tribes are the original people, but in the past 40 years, we sense for the country more strongly. But a tiger and I want to ask you and Jiang Xiaofeng soon as well, because although we are in the same country, but our communication is totally interrupted, may be we are here is more deeply felt in this country is what the state split after 

Hu Yihu: very Xiexie Yi Jun, I would like to Hillsborough to hear very clearly, because the signal we should be very well, Hillsborough. 

Jiang Xiaofeng: Yes, I heard a greeting Yi Jun areas. In fact, the headquarters of the opposition I know the situation in Benghazi, in fact, although governments, Western governments came to Benghazi, the transition committee should be said that the opposition, they think more and more countries are now beginning to recognizeopposition of the regime, but we come into contact with, whether or Ai quarter of Benghazi Dabi Ye some people, they think they do not make life difficult and Tripoli, and Tripoli not make life difficult for the people who make life difficult for the card Zhafei dictatorship, is Libya's Gaddafi family ruled for so many years. 

Today, we ask them a question, ask that they are not the country will split into two parts in the future, when the two parts of things, but they all use a relatively loud voice replied, saying only that a Libyan and will not present a military conflict or confrontation and let the people have split the nation, so that what this country is divided into two parts. From the public on their feelings plain, now, they do not want to move towards a civil war in Libya, or Libyan things eventually split into two countries, a tiger. 

Hu Yihu: Well, thank you. General Xu Beijing, how you look, from the perspective of the international community, past history can be seen, the international does not encourage a country split in two or three and a half, then the fact is concerned, as the peaceful dissolution of Czechoslovakia in this way is very, very small, you see this trend currently do, the possibility of big? 

Xu Guangyu: my analysis, the current state of Libya is very unlikely in two very small, because in the wrong? The reason is that no matter which party is the party or Benghazi, Tripoli, on this side, and even including NATO, the United States there is no other international community in favor of the division of Libya, because once planted a big split on the time bomb in North Africa. That for all the people around, as well as the relationship between this country and these countries will be a negative factor. 

The consequences are very serious, so my personal analysis, this split is very unlikely, the other is to see if you have split, his lack of basis, he and the Sudan is different from the Sudan after a referendum, it is a national Religious groups are among the many factors substandard, in which case, it is difficult to squeeze in a man-made in a pinch, and now there is no such condition as Libya, there is no case, so I think splitting highly unlikely.

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